Copy of Monthly Macroeconomic Report

JUNE 2025
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Jul 21, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

At its meeting on June 18, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25 – 4.50%, while inflation rose to 2.70% from 2.40%.

The Bank of England also maintained its Bank Rate at 4.25%. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points.

The People’s Bank of China and Bank Indonesia left their benchmark rates unchanged at 3.00% and 5.50%, respectively.

In contrast, the Central Bank of Brazil raised the SELIC rate by 25 basis points to 15.00%, while the Bank of Mexico cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 8.00%.

US GDP declined by 0.50% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, following a 2.40% increase in the fourth quarter of the previous year. The average GDP growth forecast for the second quarter of 2025 stands at 1.50%. China’s economic growth slowed to 5.20% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, down from 5.40% in the previous quarter.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

US retail sales rose by 3.90% in June, up from 3.30% in May. The rebound after two months of monthly declines reflects consumer resilience amid ongoing trade and economic uncertainty.

US unemployment rate declined to 4.10% in June from 4.20% in May. The US economy added 147,000 new jobs.

Yield curves for June 2025, 2024, 2023, and May 2025

In June, the US Treasury yield curve shifted downward across all maturities. This movement reflected weaker economic data for May, signals of potential policy easing by the Federal Reserve, and a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions toward the end of the month.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined to 96.88 by the end of June, down from 99.33 at the end of May, as the probability of a cut in July rose to 92%.

FACT

By the end of June, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite rose by 4.96%, 4.32%, and 6.57%, respectively. The "Magnificent Seven" – Meta, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla – remained at the core of the rally. As of early July, Nvidia shares were up 13.3%, while Microsoft gained 14.7% year-to-date.

The 90-day pause in mutual tariffs between the US and China, announced in May, continued to bolster market optimism. Despite the scheduled end of the pause in July, markets remained on an upward trend, with ongoing trade talks with both Europe and China further reducing uncertainty.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Ten of the eleven US economic sectors showed positive dynamics. The leader was Technology (+10%) and Communications (+7%). At the same time, positive dynamics were recorded in all eighteen US industries.
WTI crude futures rose by 7.11%, while Brent crude futures increased by 5.81%. Oil prices rose sharply in early June due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, but a ceasefire later in the month curbed further gains.
By the end of June, natural gas prices declined by 0.24%. However, throughout the month, prices were volatile and at one point surged nearly 18% compared to the previous month.
Gold futures rose by 0.18% in June, while the spot price saw a modest monthly gain of 0.36%. Year-to-date, gold posted a return of 25.82%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In June, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 18 (-33.3% МоМ) with an aggregate value of about $5.1B (0.0% МоМ). Globally, there were 118 (+8.3% МоМ) IPOs valued at $13.4B (+36.8% МоМ).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,386 (-9.2% MoM) for $61.2B (-47.1% MoM), including 465 (-11.1% МоМ) deals in the US for $32.4B (-58.1% МоМ).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 16 non-public technology companies including: Thinking Machines Lab, Kalshi, Unitree, Gecko Robotics, Wayflyer, Decagon and others.

Over the first six months of 2025, bitcoin’s price rose by 13.16%, while ether fell by 25.51%. In June, bitcoin rose by 2.63%, while ether declined by 1.55%. Both the US and Europe advanced crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks, such as MiCA in Europe and supportive legislative proposals in the US, which strengthened market confidence and reduced uncertainty.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.