Monthly Macroeconomic Report

SEPTEMBER 2025
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Oct 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00 – 4.25%.

The Bank of England kept its bank rate unchanged at 4.00%, while the ECB maintained its key rates, including the deposit facility rate at 2.00%.

The People’s Bank of China and the Central Bank of Brazil kept their benchmark rates at 3.00% and 15.00%, respectively.

Indonesia’s and Mexico’s central banks reduced rates to 4.75% and 7.50%, respectively.

According to the third estimate, US GDP grew 3.80% year-on-year in Q2 2025 after a 0.60% decline in Q1. China’s economic growth slowed to 4.80% YoY in Q3 2025 from 5.20% in the previous quarter.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that US retail sales increased 5.72% YoY in September after 5.00% in August.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.10 in September from 48.70 in August.

The Chicago Fed estimated the US unemployment rate at 4.30% in September, unchanged from August.

Yield curves for June 2025, 2024, 2023, and May 2025

In September, the short and long ends of the US Treasury yield curve declined. The decline in short-term bond yields reflects the reduction in the federal funds rate to 4.00–4.25%. It was the first rate cut since December 2024, which was widely anticipated by the markets.

During the month, the curve was negatively affected by unfavorable unemployment and inflation data for August, but at the end of the month, an upward revision of GDP contributed to an increase in medium-term bonds.

By the end of September, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 97.78 from 97.77 at the end of August.

FACT

In September, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite rose 1.87%, 3.53%, and 5.61%, respectively. The S&P 500 continued its upward trend for the fifth consecutive month, recording 23 new closing highs in the month, with the last high at 6,699.52.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Eight of the eleven US economic sectors showed positive or near-zero performance in September, with Technology (+8%), Telecommunications (+7%), and Utilities (+4%) leading the gains. Across industries, thirteen of eighteen US industries recorded positive performance.
WTI crude futures fell 2.56% to $62.37 per barrel, while Brent crude futures declined 2.15% to $66.03. OPEC+ members increased production by 630,000 b/d in September compared to August, after completing a 2.20M b/d cut the previous month. .
US natural gas prices increased 11.54% in September, driven by record-high domestic demand, which rose 3.20% year-to-date and remained supported by ongoing exports.
Gold futures rose 10.57% to $3,873.20 per ounce, and spot gold increased 11.93% in September. Year-to-date, gold has gained 47.07%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In September, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 25 IPO (+38.9% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $8.8B (+140.3% MoM). Globally, there were 158 IPO (+29.5% MoM) IPOs valued at $17.3B (+90.6%MoM).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,706 (+12.3% MoM)for $103.4B (-19.1% MoM), including 555 (-7.2% MoM) deals in the US for $44.4B (-54.0% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 21 non-public technology companies, including: PsiQuantum, Gentle Monster, Baseten, Invisible Technologies, Distyl AI, Terrion, and others.

Since the beginning of 2025, bitcoin has risen 22.32% and ether 25.40%. In September, bitcoin increased 5.04%, while ether declined 5.81%. On September 22, the cryptocurrency market experienced the largest liquidation event of 2025: over $1.70B in leveraged positions were closed within 24 hours, including $1.60B in long positions.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.