Monthly Macroeconomic Report

Oсtober 2025
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL VERSION

SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Nov 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

At the time of publication, the US Federal Government is in a shutdown – a temporary suspension of operations at certain agencies due to the absence of an approved budget, which has led to the suspension of key macroeconomic data releases, including CPI, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment rates.

The US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate for the second consecutive month by 25 bps to 3.75 – 4.00%.

The ECB maintained its key interest rates at previous levels, including the deposit facility rate at 2.00%.

The People’s Bank of China and Bank Indonesia kept their policy rates at 3.00% and 4.75%, respectively.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates real US GDP growth in Q3 at 4.00% YoY. China’s economy slowed to 4.80% YoY in Q3 2025 from 5.20% in Q2.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and its Retail Monitor, US retail sales in October declined to 5.00% YoY from 5.72%.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the US Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.70 in October from 49.10 in September.

The Chicago Fed estimates that the US unemployment rate edged up to 4.36% in October from 4.35% in September.

Yield curves for June 2025, 2024, 2023, and May 2025

The US Treasury yield curve shifted downward across all maturities except 1-year notes. Only the short end of the curve moved higher due to comments from Fed Chair Powell, who emphasized that further rate cuts are not guaranteed.

By the end of October, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 99.80 from 97.78 at the end of September.

FACT

In October, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite rose 2.51%, 2.27%, and 4.70%, respectively. Nvidia made history as the first company with a market capitalization exceeding $5T. Over the past year, it reported $86B in profit on $165B in revenue.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Five of the eleven US economic sectors showed positive or near-zero performance, with Technology (+7%), Healthcare (+4%), and Utilities (+2%) leading gains. Across industries, positive momentum was observed in eight of eighteen US industries.
WTI crude oil futures fell 2.23% to $60.98 per barrel, while Brent crude futures dropped 1.91% to $64.77. The decline in oil futures was driven by a combination of factors: a stronger dollar and weaker macroeconomic data from China, heightening concerns over demand.
In October, natural gas prices rose 23.12%. Weather models began forecasting a “significant cold spell” in late October across key US regions, sharply increasing expected heating demand.
Gold futures rose 3.62% in October to $4,013.30 per troy ounce, while the spot price increased 3.72%. Since the start of 2025, gold has returned 52.54%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In October, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 24 (-4.0% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $5.4B (-39.0% MoM). Globally, there were 193IPOs (+21.4% MoM) valued at $22.0B (+27.7%MoM).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,861 (-1.4% MoM) for $129.9B (+24.3 MoM), including 629 (+4.3% MoM) deals in the US for $58.8B (+28.8% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 17 non-public technology companies, including Reflection AI, Tempo, Fireworks AI, n8n, Stoke Space, and Legora.

Since the start of 2025, bitcoin has gained 16.77% and ether 15.31%. However, in October, bitcoin fell 4.54% and ether declined 8.05%. The key trigger was US President Donald Trump’s announcement on 10 October of additional 100% tariffs on all goods from China on top of existing duties.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.