Monthly Macroeconomic Report

JULY 2025
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Aug 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

At its meeting on July 30, the US Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25 – 4.50%, while inflation remained at 2.70%.

The Bank of England did not hold meetings in July, but in August, the Bank Rate is expected to be cut to 4.00% from 4.25%.

The People’s Bank of China, the Central Bank of Brazil, and the Bank of Mexico kept their policy rates unchanged at 3.00%, 15.00%, and 8.00%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia cut the seven-day reverse repo rate to 5.25% from 5.50%.

US GDP grew by 3.00% year-on-year in Q2 2025 after contracting by 0.50% in Q1. China’s economic growth slowed to 5.20% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, down from 5.40% in the previous quarter.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

US retail sales grew by 3.90% in July, following a 4.40% increase in June.

US industrial production rose by 1.40% year-over-year in July, compared to 0.80% in June. Apple announced a $600B investment plan in the US over four years, including the launch of its “American Manufacturing Program,” aimed at expanding domestic supply chains and production capacity.

The US unemployment rate rose to 4.20% in July from 4.10% in June, with the number of unemployed increasing by 221,000 to 7.24M.

Yield curves for July 2025, 2024, 2023, and June 2025

In July, the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward across all maturities. The bond market was influenced by two factors: large-scale issuance of Treasury securities and investor caution regarding future rate cuts amid persistent inflation.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 99.97 by the end of July from 96.88 at the end of June.

FACT

By the end of July, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite rose by 0.08%, 2.17%, and 3.70%, respectively. The S&P 500 surpassed the 5,500 points mark for the first time, thanks to strong earnings from large technology and AI companies

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Eight of the eleven US economic sectors showed positive dynamics, with Utilities (+5%) and Technology (+4%) leading the growth. At the same time, in terms of industries, positive dynamics were recorded in fifteen out of eighteen US industries.
WTI oil futures rose by 6.37% to $69.26 per barrel in July. Brent oil futures rose by 7.28% to $72.53. OPEC+ announced an increase in production targets of approximately 548,000 b/d, which heightened concerns about supply and limited price growth.
In July, natural gas prices fell by 10.58%. As of the beginning of July, natural gas reserves in the US were 7% higher than the five-year average (2020 – 2024).
By the end of July, Gold futures remained unchanged at $3,362.80 per troy ounce. The spot price of gold for July showed near-zero dynamics and fell by 0.36%. At the same time, since the start of 2025, gold’s return has been 25.37%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In July, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 23 (-21.1% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $5.4B (+4.2% MoM). Globally, there were 167 (+31.5% MoM) IPOs valued at $22.6B (+62.2% MoM).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,653 (-0.4% MoM) for $244.0B (+264.2% MoM), including 535 (-3.9% MoM) deals in the US for $176.7B (+464.0% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 17 non-public technology companies including: MaintainX, Erebor, Lovable, Cult.Fit, Anaconda, Ninja and others.

Since the beginning of 2025, bitcoin’s price rose by 22.50%, and ether by 11.08%. In July, bitcoin rose by 8.25%, and ether by 49.12%. In July, bitcoin reached a record high above $122,000, driven by demand from the institutional sector. Giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity doubled their inflows into their Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock holding more than $65B in BTC.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.