Monthly Macroeconomic Report

DECEMber 2025
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Jan 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50 – 3.75%.

The Bank of England lowered the bank rate to 3.75%.

The European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged, including the deposit facility rate at 2.00%.

The People’s Bank of China, the Central Bank of Brazil, and Bank Indonesia left their policy rates unchanged at 3.00%, 15.00%, and 4.75%, respectively.

The Bank of Mexico cut its overnight rate to 7.00%.

According to the GDPNow model as of January 14, 2026, real US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 5.30% in the fourth quarter. China’s economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to remain solid, allowing the country to achieve its 5.00% GDP growth target.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and its Retail Monitor, US retail sales in December increased by 3.54% year over year, compared with 4.53% in the previous month. Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US manufacturing PMI declined to 47.90 in December from 48.20 in November.

The US unemployment rate fell to 4.40% in December from 4.50% in November.

Yield curves for November 2025, 2024, 2023, and October 2025

In December, the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward across all maturities except for 1-year and 2-year Treasuries.

The decline in yields at the short end of the curve was driven by the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the federal funds rate.

By the end of December, the US Dollar Index (DXY) had declined to 98.28 from 99.46 at the end of November.

FACT

By the end of December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.73%, while the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 declined by 0.53% and 0.05%, respectively. U.S. equities were buoyed by potential Nvidia H200 export approvals to China (supporting the Nasdaq), while the Dow was driven more by shifting rate and growth expectations and the S&P 500 by changes in the Fed’s rhetoric on prospective rate cuts.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Seven of the eleven US economic sectors posted positive or near-flat performance, with Financials (+3%), Communication Services (+2%), and Materials (+2%) leading the gains. At the industry level, positive performance was recorded in twelve of eighteen US industries.
WTI crude oil futures declined by 1.93% to $57.42 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fell by 3.72% to $60.85 per barrel. Oil prices were pressured by a persistent supply surplus, which outweighed the impact of geopolitical tensions.
By the end of December, natural gas prices fell by 23.66%.
In December, gold futures rose by 4.38% to $4,386.30 per troy ounce, while spot gold increased by 2.52%. Over the full year 2025, gold gained 64.81%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In December, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 31 (+82.4% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $13.4B (+352.4% MoM). Globally, there were 220 IPOs (+58.3% MoM) valued at $29.9B (+117.4% MoM).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,539 (-6.8% MoM) for $234.8B (+127.0 MoM), including 488 (-5.4% MoM) deals in the US for $166.3B (+132.9% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 18 non-public technology companies, including Unconventional AI, Erebor, Fuse Energy, GalBot, Saviynt, Iceye, and others.

Since the beginning of 2025, the price of bitcoin has declined by 6.22%, while ether has fallen by 11.01%. In December alone, bitcoin declined by 3.62% and ether by 1.49%. The key driver was consolidation amid uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy and the absence of new growth catalysts. Bitcoin traded within a narrow range of $84,000 – $93,000 for most of the month, while the largest options expiry of the year, totaling approximately $23.00B on December 26, added further pressure to the market.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.