Monthly Macroeconomic Report

April 2026
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
May 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

In April, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the ECB left their policy rates unchanged at 3.75%, 3.75%, and 2.00%, respectively.

Fed officials noted that inflation remains elevated, partly reflecting higher global energy prices. Markets, overall, expect rates to remain unchanged and have priced this in.

The People’s Bank of China and Bank Indonesia kept their policy rates unchanged at 3.00% and 4.75%, respectively.

The Central Bank of Brazil cut the SELIC rate by 25 bps to 14.50%. The Bank of Mexico did not hold any meetings in April, but the overnight rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.75%..

According to the preliminary estimate, US real GDP grew by 2.00% year-over-year in Q1 2026, following growth of 0.50% in Q4. In Q1 2026, China’s economy expanded by 5.00% year-over-year (vs. 4.50% in Q4) and by 1.30% compared with the previous quarter (vs. 1.20% in Q4).

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

US retail sales increased by 0.50% compared with March, while annual growth accelerated to 4.90% from 4.20% a month earlier.

US industrial production increased to 1.40% year-over-year in April.

The US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.30% in April, while total nonfarm employment increased by 115,000.

Yield curves for April 2026, 2025, and 2024 and March 2026

In April, the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward across all maturities.

This dynamic reflected rising inflation (CPI and PCE) and a shift in market expectations: on April 29, the Fed kept the rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, which the market interpreted as a postponement of the rate-cutting cycle. Persistent inflationary pressure makes a near-term rate cut unlikely.

By the end of April, the US Dollar Index (DXY) declined to 98.06 from 99.96 at the end of March

FACT

By the end of April, the NASDAQ Composite, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 15.29%, 10.42%, and 7.14%, respectively. The key factors were: a partial easing of tensions in Iran, strong first-quarter results, and renewed momentum in the AI and semiconductor sectors.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

In April, ten out of eleven sectors of the US economy posted positive or near-flat performance, while the top gainers were Technology (+20%), Real Estate (+9%), and Consumer Discretionary (+9%). At the industry level, positive or near-flat performance was recorded in fifteen out of eighteen US industries. The strongest growth was posted by Semiconductors (+32%), Clean Energy (+21%), and Internet (+13%).
WTI crude oil futures rose by 3.64% to $105.07 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 6.18% to $110.40 per barrel. Oil prices were influenced by mixed factors throughout the month: despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, there was a partial easing of tensions in the Middle East.
By the end of April, the price of natural gas fell by 4.06%. The main drivers of the decline were high storage levels after the heating season, mild off-season weather, and expectations of higher production
In April, gold futures were almost unchanged (-0.71%) at $4,629.60 per troy ounce, as was the spot price (-0.95%) at $4,622.59.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In April, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 30 (+114.3% MoM), with an aggregate value of about $9.5B (+211.6% MoM). Globally, there were 129 (-15.1% MoM) IPOs valued at $15.0B (+14.4% MoM).

Additionally, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,728 (-8.9% MoM) for $145.0B (-35.0% MoM), including 555 (-12.6% MoM) deals in the US for $47.5B (-54.4% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

FACT

The unicorn list expanded by 10 non-public technology companies, including Galaxea AI, Stipple Bio, Shengshu Technology, Resolve AI, EngineAI, GigaAI, and others.

Since the start of 2026, the price of bitcoin has declined by 12.99%, while ether has fallen by 23.98%. By the end of April, the price of bitcoin rose by 12.14%, while ether – 7.49%. The main theme of the month was the accelerating integration of the cryptocurrency market into the traditional financial system and regulatory agenda.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.